DASH 5.17.26

I’d add a couple of things and maybe push back a bit. In terms of the international growth playbook, you're right. Some of it comes from promos and discounting, but a lot of it actually comes back to product advantages. When you look at it, and we've looked at this a lot more in the US than internationally, but DoorDash's app compared to Uber Eats, for example, it's the best in any way that you slice it.

Customer satisfaction with DoorDash is higher. Their fees are actually lower because they have better density. They're so focused. The calls that we did, the checks we did on Tony Xu, he'll get to the lowest level of detail. They're so hyper-focused on getting delivery speeds as fast as possible and keeping driver downtime as low as possible. All of that stuff does compound to a better product.

So they're taking that playbook from DoorDash in the US. They brought that to the Wolt team. We spoke to a few people, formers at Wolt, and they said attention to detail got higher. The bar got much higher after the acquisition.

But then all of that contributes to the market share, and that stuff does matter. You might know this from your calls, but in delivery, if somebody has a bad experience, they're done. You order something that says it's going to show up in 30 minutes, but it takes 75 minutes. You're late to whatever you have, or the restaurant cancels on you, or the driver brings the wrong stuff. The consumer bar here is much higher than for other products. If you're off, the consumer will penalize you big time.

So, DoorDash's 99% order accuracy rate versus a peer being at 97-98%, that kind of stuff compounds. Then one other point that I’d add, just in terms of the growth strategy internationally, a key piece here that I don't think you mentioned, it’s related to promotions and discounting, but it’s a different piece. It's a merchant acquisition. So, going and getting the best or trendiest restaurants, you could do that by getting them with lower commissions. If Uber Eats is at that restaurant, DoorDash can go to them, or rather, in the UK, for example, Deliveroo. Just give them a lower rate to get them on the platform. To my colleague's point, 90% or more of the work we've done there has been just looking at Sensor Tower data.

Yeah, I did a bunch of work on this. So we have MAUs growing fairly significantly. Definitely slowing in the US, but we're modeling 3 to 4 million MAUs in the US in the coming year, closer to 3 on average.

It comes from three buckets. One of the biggest is actually just demographics. I know, usually, if a company says that every year, 4 million people in the US turn 18, and that's going to grow their market, I actually buy it in this case because the people passing away in this country, on average, are going to be in their 70s or 80s, and they're probably not really using food delivery much. As people age into the workforce and gain discretionary income, they've grown up in an on-demand world.

So, depending on how you want to define it, whether it's people graduating high school and getting their own app or graduating college and starting to earn a salary, there are 4 million people a year aging into the potential user base. That cohort, based on the data we've seen, is more likely to use DoorDash than Uber Eats. So that alone can add, and we're modeling 1.5 million net adds per year on the MAU side just from people sort of aging in.

A little bit comes from continued share gains. Some of it comes from gains in competitor share. Then the final piece is how DoorDash defines MAUs, which is in terms of monthly. A lot of people are ordering 3 or 4 times a year. Over the coming years, that ticks up from 3 times a year to 4 times a year, or 4 times a year to 5 times a year, across tens of millions of people. That actually starts to show up in the MAU number. So those are the three buckets we looked at.

Do you mean for the US specifically or globally?

Probably. Average MAUs in the US for 2027 are roughly 43 million.

9%. Oh, I mean, 2027, 9%, and CAGR from 2025 to 2030, 8%.

Yeah, absolutely.

Just to add, my colleague didn't mention, but ads are a big part of the story in terms of the take rate expansion, CPGs. We actually spoke with a couple of CPGs that are already spending a lot on DoorDash ads.

Then the second piece, you asked about competition. It's a big question. We mostly take the view that this is a big enough TAM for all these players to gain share. I mean, we spoke with somebody who's pretty senior at Amazon Fresh, and they don't worry about DoorDash. They don't really care. They're all doing their own thing. You see Uber Eats ads for groceries everywhere. We don't view that as a terrible thing for DoorDash. If people are getting in the habit of spending more on their phones for groceries, probably that's a benefit for DoorDash over the next 3 to 5 years, whether or not they're spending on DoorDash today. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the competitive landscape in grocery and how you think about that.